STE FORESIGHT™ Beyond The Obvious

STE Analytics builds simulation tools that allow organizations’ management to assess the impact of decisions before they are implemented. This facilitates the work of decision-makers and reduces the risk associated with decision-making.

STE FORESIGHT™ Beyond The Obvious enables you to use the data to support the strategy work. When using the STE FORESIGHT ™, you will always know where your market is heading.

The service is based on the collection of your industry experts’ knowledge and coded in the form of a mathematical model. A result is a simulation tool that describes your operating environment and predicts key market variables on a selected scope of 2-10 years depending on key interests.

It also allows you to test the effects of different decisions beforehand. Instead of black box forecasts, you would have a holistic picture of the whole market environment.

Key Features of STE FORESIGHT™

Features of STE FORESIGHT™ models:

Provide a high-level, strategic perspective on problems
Are based on 1-to-1 mapping of the underlying actual structure of the market (or other system)
Capture a practical (every-day) and realistic industry decision making habits describing how the elements of the market or individual company interact to produce its overall behavior
Include key behavioral factors such as perceptions, goals, pressures and trade-offs
Combine the best aspects of wide range of relevant information, (time-series data, subjective estimates, direct observations, expert opinions)

Structures – Known And Unknown – Lead To Unexpected Behaviors

Industrial markets are usually cyclical. There are multiple cycles active at the same time which makes it hard to perceive the full image just by human reasoning or linear approach. With the simulation model, multiple feedbacks and different delays are easily considered simultaneously.

Price and profitability explain typically the market production capacity decisions. Time delays in capacity management produce market cycles over 7 years in length.

For example, the price of the product is usually also the product and the cause of the supply-demand balance fluctuations:

Market price trend direction tends to be set by production cost level and supply-demand balance. Depending on the market, the supply-demand balance indicator can be operating rate, producer inventory level, order backlog level, or another similar metric. Market price often impacts customer orders. When the price turns up, also orders tend to go up.

Similarly, when the price turns down the orders go down as well. Inventory management produces 2-5 year cycles in the market. Price speculation increases cycle amplitude.

STE FORESIGHT™
Plan Better, Do Better

STE FORESIGHT™ – Project Timeline

1. Definition

Kick off -meeting:

Meeting with your experts 2-3 hours.
Data gathering.

2. Pilot

Expert interviews:

Typically, 5 group interviews with your experts from different functions.

Reporting of the pilot project:

A meeting where we go through the key insights from the pilot. Typically, pilot focuses on pricing logic and industry structure.

3. Simulation Model

Meetings to introduce and test the model:

A few short meetings where the practicality of the model is evaluated as part of the quality assurance.

Final reporting:

Meeting where we present the key findings and recommendations of the project based on the model outcomes.

4. Support

We maintain the model with your data and send you updates monthly or quarterly as agreed.
With every update we keep a short meeting to go through the latest trends and events that affect the forecast.
Alternative scenarios are part of the update. You can use your insight to give us the assumptions for the alternative scenarios or let us use our expertise to bring to you some other likely futures besides the base case.

STE FORESIGHT™ – Project Deliverables

Leverage Point and Scenario Report:

Key leverage points identified
Includes all the key variables. Typically, those are market mode, strength of competitive position, price, industry profitability, stock levels, orderbook levels, operating rates, sales rate, end consumption, capacity level etc.
Typically, 5 years ahead
Typically, in monthly average level
Key take-aways from the current situation and near term expected changes.
Usually reported with office tools (Power Point, Excel)
Scenarios are formed together
You can try, how your own actions affect the total market
You can test how different overall market conditions affect the total market
We drive the scenarios in the model, report them and highlight the key differences to the base scenario.

STE FORESIGHT™ – Project Deliverables

Simulation tool

As the model is build, you can get the simulation tool to yourself
We then train your personnel to use the model independently
This allows you to
- Test different scenarios without limitations
- Use the model whenever needed
- Export data from the model to make your own presentations
We still take care of the math side and make the changes for the model itself if needed

Support and model maintenance

In a typical customer relationship STE maintains and updates the model at least once per year to ensure the accuracy

Models are built on specialized modelling software.

STE FORESIGHT™ Warranty:

You can discontinue the project during the pilot without a specific reason. In this case, no invoice will be sent.

Our Customers Represent Many Industries and Geographical Regions

Paper Industries
Health Care
Electricity
Telecommunications
B2C
Africa
Forest Industries
Brazil

Australia
Transportation Europe
Energy
North America
Germany
Entertainment
China
Recycled Paper
Industrial Chemicals

South America
Climate Change
Finland
Agriculture
Asia
Logistics
Law Enforcement
Metals

of new customers come back to us with new assignments.

The longest customer relationships have lasted over

years

Contact us to hear more!