STE FORESIGHT™ Beyond The Obvious
STE FORESIGHT™ Beyond The Obvious enables you to use the data to support the strategy work. When using the STE FORESIGHT ™, you will always know where your market is heading.
The service is based on the collection of your industry experts’ knowledge and coded in the form of a mathematical model. A result is a simulation tool that describes your operating environment and predicts key market variables on a selected scope of 2-10 years depending on key interests.
It also allows you to test the effects of different decisions beforehand. Instead of black box forecasts, you would have a holistic picture of the whole market environment.
Key Features of STE FORESIGHT™
Features of STE FORESIGHT™ models:
- Provide a high-level, strategic perspective on problems
- Are based on 1-to-1 mapping of the underlying actual structure of the market (or other system)
- Capture a practical (every-day) and realistic industry decision making habits describing how the elements of the market or individual company interact to produce its overall behavior
- Include key behavioral factors such as perceptions, goals, pressures and trade-offs
- Combine the best aspects of wide range of relevant information, (time-series data, subjective estimates, direct observations, expert opinions)
Structures – Known And Unknown – Lead To Unexpected Behaviors
Industrial markets are usually cyclical. There are multiple cycles active at the same time which makes it hard to perceive the full image just by human reasoning or linear approach. With the simulation model, multiple feedbacks and different delays are easily considered simultaneously.
Price and profitability explain typically the market production capacity decisions. Time delays in capacity management produce market cycles over 7 years in length.
For example, the price of the product is usually also the product and the cause of the supply-demand balance fluctuations:
Market price trend direction tends to be set by production cost level and supply-demand balance. Depending on the market, the supply-demand balance indicator can be operating rate, producer inventory level, order backlog level, or another similar metric. Market price often impacts customer orders. When the price turns up, also orders tend to go up.
Similarly, when the price turns down the orders go down as well. Inventory management produces 2-5 year cycles in the market. Price speculation increases cycle amplitude.
Plan Better, Do Better
STE FORESIGHT™ – Project Timeline
Kick off -meeting:
- Meeting with your experts 2-3 hours.
- Data gathering.
- Typically, 5 group interviews with your experts from different functions.
Reporting of the pilot project:
- A meeting where we go through the key insights from the pilot. Typically, pilot focuses on pricing logic and industry structure.
3. Simulation Model
Meetings to introduce and test the model:
- A few short meetings where the practicality of the model is evaluated as part of the quality assurance.
- Meeting where we present the key findings and recommendations of the project based on the model outcomes.
- We maintain the model with your data and send you updates monthly or quarterly as agreed.
- With every update we keep a short meeting to go through the latest trends and events that affect the forecast.
- Alternative scenarios are part of the update. You can use your insight to give us the assumptions for the alternative scenarios or let us use our expertise to bring to you some other likely futures besides the base case.
STE FORESIGHT™ – Project Deliverables
Leverage Point and Scenario Report:
- Key leverage points identified
- Includes all the key variables. Typically, those are market mode, strength of competitive position, price, industry profitability, stock levels, orderbook levels, operating rates, sales rate, end consumption, capacity level etc.
- Typically, 5 years ahead
- Typically, in monthly average level
- Key take-aways from the current situation and near term expected changes.
- Usually reported with office tools (Power Point, Excel)
- Scenarios are formed together
- You can try, how your own actions affect the total market
- You can test how different overall market conditions affect the total market
- We drive the scenarios in the model, report them and highlight the key differences to the base scenario.
STE FORESIGHT™ – Project Deliverables
- As the model is build, you can get the simulation tool to yourself
- We then train your personnel to use the model independently
- This allows you to
- Test different scenarios without limitations
- Use the model whenever needed
- Export data from the model to make your own presentations
- We still take care of the math side and make the changes for the model itself if needed
Support and model maintenance
- In a typical customer relationship STE maintains and updates the model at least once per year to ensure the accuracy
Models are built on specialized modelling software.
STE FORESIGHT™ Warranty:
You can discontinue the project during the pilot without a specific reason. In this case, no invoice will be sent.
Our Customers Represent Many Industries and Geographical Regions
of new customers come back to us with new assignments.
The longest customer relationships have lasted over
Contact us to hear more!
STE FORESIGHT ™ –
Beyond the Obvious
Senior Consultant, Partner and Co-Founder
+358 44 5501876